Understand the numbers involved in keyword analysis
A number of tools exist that claim to help web developrs with keyword popularity research. No single tool alone is good enough. It is only by using a combination of tools that a web designer can make an educated guess as to the popularity of and competition for a particular keyword.
The ultimate problem with all keyword research tools is the value they assign popularity and competition.
The effectiveness of a keyword is usually given as a ratio. There are two main formulas used to determine this ratio.
Competition/popularity (results/searches). The closer this ratio is to zero, the more effective it is considered. Any value under ten using this formula is considered good.
Another formula used is called the KEI (keyword effectiveness index) which is (popularity * popularity)/competition or P squared/C. This produces a higher number then the first formula. With this formula, a value closer to zero is bad. The higher the number the better. Any number over 100 is considered good and a number over 400 is excellent.
The problem with competition numbers
Almost all keyword research tools use the same method for determining competition. They determine the number of results for an “exact phrase” search of a keyword phrase. An exact phrase search is when the keyword phrase is enclosed in quotation marks. This determines the number of sites on which that “exact phrase” exists. This search is almost always accomplished using Google as the search engine.
For example, type in “paisley socks” (with quotation marks) into Google. The title bar displays the number of web pages with that exact phrase. In this case the number is 152. This is the number used by the keyword tools for the competition value. Run the search again, without the quotation marks. This time the total is 58,000. Authors of the tools make the argument that the former is truly the competition. However, most users search without the quotation marks. I have a keyword that returns my site in the number one slot if the quotation marks are used. However, enter the keyword without quotation marks and my site is not even on the map. Which number is truly valid?
What’s my point? Competition is not simply the number of exact match web pages. This number helps determine the possible AMOUNT (quantity) of competition but the number does not determine the actual QUALITY of the competition.
The question is not how MUCH competition but how DIFFICULT is the competition. I can run a race with one million turtles. That’s a lot of competition. However, it is not very difficult competition. I can run a race with one cheetah. The competition is small but extremely difficult. There exists a need for a competition difficulty quotient.
The competition figure offers no insight into the quality of the competition. How optimized are my competitors for those keywords? The only tool I know of that takes a decent attempt at answering this question is the Keyword Difficulty Tool offered by SEOMoz.
The problem with popularity numbers
There are two tools that are widely used to gauge the popularity of a keyword: Wordtracker and the Overture Keyword Selector Tool (now the Yahoo Search Marketing Keyword Selector Tool).
Wordtracker bases the popularity of a keyword on the number of times the keyword phrase has been searched for on the meta-search engines Dogpile and Metacrawler over the last two months. The fatal flaw of Wordtracker (and all keyword analysis tools) is using this count as an estimate of Google/Yahoo/MSN statistics. Are the number of searches on Dogpile/Metacrawler truly comparable to the numbers of searches for that keyword on Google (or Msn or Yahoo)? Dogpile/Metacrawler has a fairly limited audience. It is comparing apples to oranges. The metacrawlers are not Google. There is no way around this since Google does not make known their user’s search data. All keyword analysis tools will have to settle for comparing apples to oranges. Tool users can only hope that the popularity count is at least somewhat representative. For further thoughts on Wordtracker, read my Wordtracker review.
What does the Wordtracker count value truly represent? The Wordtracker site states the count reflects the number of times the keyword phrase has appeared in there database over the last two months. It seems logical to interpret this to mean that over the last two months X amount of searches using those keywords have taken place. However, others have indicated, that this is truly a daily count average over the last two months. Like much in the search engine world, there is not a straight answer.
Wordtrackers popularity count is also subject to seasonality. The only tool that tries to allow for seasonality is Keyword Discovery. KD is not without its flaws. Read my review of KD here.
While Wordtrackers numbers maybe on the small side, Overture’s numbers have the opposite problem. Because the Overture is used determine PPC bidding amounts, it is subject to abuse. Searches made my marketers are included in the results just as those from “true” searchers. For popular keywords, this can inflate the popularity numbers. Again, read this article comparing Wordtracker and Overture results for more information.
Because the two elements of the ratio formulas are flawed, the ratios themselves are flawed. They can be a guide, but that is all.
Have we all been duped? Is it a waste of time to use these tools? No and no. There are two problems to overcome. One, we need to overcome our lack of understanding of these tools. Two, keyword analysis tools are in the toddler stage. They need more time to mature.
The key is to develop a more comprehensive method for keyword popularity research that does not solely rely on one tool.
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